The words we use in every note, defined once. The names stay the same week to week, so an alert you set on "the pivot" in one week still means the same thing in the next.
The map
The map. The week's ES levels, published Sunday and updated Wednesday. These are the Major levels. Each one comes with what it means if it holds or breaks.
The pivot. The one level that decides the week. A close on the other side of it changes the plan. If you set one alert, set it here.
Target. Where a move is expected to stall or pay. The first target comes before anything is repaired; the upper target sits outside the expected move and only matters once the first one clears.
Hurdle. A level price has to reclaim and hold before the next leg is on. A poke through intraday is not a reclaim.
Defensive line. A close below it turns the posture defensive and opens the lower half of the range.
The extreme. A watch price, not an entry. Where a flush is most likely to run out.
Daily levels. Paid. The day's expected range plus the Orange and Minor levels, which sit inside the weekly map and tell you where to act today.
Expected range. The move options are pricing for the session or the week. A session that runs well outside it tells you the market is repricing.
How levels are graded
Every Friday each published level is checked against the tape, misses included.
Held. Price tested the level and closed on the side the map said it would.
Rejected. Price traded through intraday and closed back on the other side.
Cleared. Price closed through resistance and the level turned into support.
Broke. Price closed through the level and kept going.
Not reached. Price never traded to the level. Not counted as a win or a miss.
Reading the tape
Close. A close means the 4:00pm ET settle unless the note says otherwise. Wicks don't count.
Reclaim vs. poke. A reclaim is a close back over the level that holds. A poke is a trade through it that doesn't.
Hold. A level holds when it is defended, and you can see it in breadth, the NYSE TICK, leaders against laggards and volume, not just in price.
Buy from strength. We act at a level only when the index is holding its pivot. A fill while price slices through the line is not the setup.
RTH and overnight. RTH is the regular session, 9:30am to 4:00pm ET. Overnight is everything else. Many levels are set or tested overnight and decided in RTH.
ES and SPX. ES is the E-mini S&P 500 future. SPX is the cash index. They track each other with a small gap (the basis); all our levels are in ES points.
Our instruments
The Lie. Our weekly score, in whole numbers. It sets how much size the plan carries and for how long. The further from zero, the stronger the read.
Scenarios. The three paths we lay out each Sunday, weighted off how similar setups have played out historically, not off a hunch.
Our odds. Probabilities from historical samples, written as fractions ("3 in 4") so they read like odds rather than precision.
Positioning screen. Where money is actually placed going into the week, and where the layer of standing demand runs out (we call that the cushion).
Discount screen. Where options are priced below what the tape has been delivering. It points to the cheapest strikes for a defined-risk idea.
Leaders. Stocks setting up, each with a buy zone and the line where the idea is wrong. When the index is under its pivot, we only take them with a margin of safety: an entry at support with small risk to it.
Risk
Defined risk. Every options idea we publish has a known maximum loss up front, usually a spread. We don't publish naked short options.
Managed exit. Options ideas are trades over 0 to 5 days, not bets held to expiration. We grade them on the best managed exit inside that window.
New here? Start with How LobWedge Research Works, then see the track record.
Not investment advice. Futures and options carry substantial risk.