The market remains bullish, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones at record highs, driven by strong earnings and economic data. However, volatility could arise from the upcoming BRICS Summit (Oct 22–24), where discussions on a new reserve currency might challenge the U.S. dollar, impacting global trade and sectors with international exposure.
Macro highlights:
U.S. economy shows resilience with retail sales up 0.4% and GDP forecast increased to 3.4%.
The Federal Reserve is cautious, with rate cuts expected through 2025.
The 2024 U.S. election could lead to shifts in sectors like defense, industrials, and energy.
Major themes:
Earnings: Key reports from Tesla and IBM this week will reveal if mega-cap tech can sustain the market rally.
Industrials & Rail: Caterpillar and Union Pacific benefit from strong infrastructure demand.
Defense & Aerospace: Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman are supported by robust defense spending.
Tech & AI: Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor continue to lead AI-driven growth.
Key events (Oct 22-26):
Economic Reports: Existing Home Sales (10/23), Jobless Claims (10/24), Durable Goods Orders (10/25)
Earnings: Tesla, Boeing, IBM, Union Pacific
The BRICS Summit could cause currency and commodity market fluctuations, especially for oil and metals.
What to Look Out For:
Watch ES trading under 5880, with resistance at higher highs. Pay attention to the BRICS event and key earnings reports.
Pullbacks in high-growth sectors like tech, industrials, and defense may offer buying opportunities.
some interesting charts:
ES Futures
Strongest start since 1997.
