Weekly Trading Notes: March 10–14, 2025

Market Overview: Volatility, Key Themes, and Sentiment

• Broad Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bearish. Inflation risks, trade tensions, and momentum shifts dominate.

• Up and down 100-type days: Markets are loose, and we still have yet to hear from CEOs about how tariffs are impacting their business. For now, too much uncertainty on what’s happening is driving volatility. This environment is good for active trading but tough for swing traders. However, position traders might get nice discounts if you don’t get lost in all the smoke in the air.

• Key Drivers: Tariffs, Inflation Data (CPI, PPI), Government Shutdown Risk, and Momentum Unwind.

• Volatility Outlook: Elevated; macroeconomic shifts and technical factors fueling price swings.

• Headlines to Watch:

  • Tariff Impact on Inflation & Growth: Larger tariffs could push core PCE inflation up to ~3% year-over-year, potentially 3.3% in a risk scenario. GDP growth forecasts have been lowered to 1.7% (from 2.2%) due to the expected -0.5pp drag.

  • Momentum Unwind: ~90% of the momentum sell-off is complete compared to tactical sell-offs, but if this is a structural regime shift, further downside of ~14% (long portfolios) or ~25% (long/short) could still be in play. - JPM

  • Recession Probability: Increased from 15% to 20% due to downside policy risks. A deeper economic slowdown could emerge if tariffs bite harder or if the White House maintains current policies without adjusting for worsening data. -GS

  • Consumer & Business Sentiment: The University of Michigan Sentiment Index and business confidence surveys could shape spending expectations.

  • FOMC next week.

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SPX & ES: Key Ranges & Tactical Approach

• Current Trend: Choppy, reacting to macro data and momentum shifts.

  • Tactical Approach:

    • Watch momentum positioning: If crowding levels start breaking 90%, another wave of selling could emerge. That would be true capitulaton scenario

    • React quickly to inflation data shocks and policy headlines. Watch for any reason to work off oversold condtions.

  • ES 5820-40 could be an area where we see up to ytd 5949+ or back under for more momentum selling and a bigger structural regime shift.

  • And staying under 200day for more of that shiiitshow. and first rule, protect capital and wait for your mkt.

  • Seasonality: last 2 weeks of march still a window to see if sellers dried up and flows come back. (refer to previous post)

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Key Events: Economic Data & Earnings That Matter

• Tuesday, March 11: JOLTS Job Openings (10:00 AM ET) – Below 7.5M = labor weakness.

• Wednesday, March 12: CPI Report (8:30 AM ET) – Core CPI above 0.3% MoM could spike bond yields.

• Thursday, March 13: PPI & Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) – Key inflation and labor test.

• Friday, March 14: Consumer Sentiment (10:00 AM ET) – Decline below 70 could signal weaker spending.

• Wildcard: Government Shutdown Deadline (March 14, midnight ET) – Potential late-week volatility.

Added a watch list:
SPY, ABBV, IBM, MCD, T, VZ, PGR, GILD, DE, BMY, SAN, MO, CME, BTI, CVS, BBVA, MCK, ITW, SE, ING, TRV, PCAR, LYG, PAYX, MNST, ALL, AIG, KR, DB, FAST, YUM, OTIS, VEEV, BRO, BEKE, CHD, WBD, MT, RYAAY, PUK, CHKP, XPEV, EFV, VGK, OKTA, GFL, GFI, FNF, CNH, BJ, UNM, ITCI, YMM, LBRDK, ACI, SQM, LKQ, EXEL, BILI, WBA, DFIV, ERJ, MLI, KWEB, VIPS, EZU, PARA, ZK, BZ, HMY, STWD, ASTS, TGTX, ALGM, IEUR, BBEU, FEZ, MP, ZLAB, MPW, BVN, ALHC, GT, NAMS, MCW, TUYA, GENI, YINN, DVAX, ARQT, LZ, OPK, EFC, DX, EWG

As always, this commentary is for educational purposes only. Assess your own risk tolerance, use appropriate position sizing, and consider consulting a qualified professional for personalized advice.