“Sometimes the best move is no move—when the board’s not in your favor, sit tight and protect your stack."

Market Overview: Volatility, Key Themes, and Sentiment

Broad Market Sentiment: Slightly Bearish to Volatile. Inflation and tariffs have returned as major headwinds.
Key Drivers:
- 25% auto tariffs announced by the Trump administration
- Deterioration in consumer sentiment and confidence
- Core PCE coming in hot (+0.4% MoM)
- Underwhelming IPO debut from Coreweave (CRWV)
Volatility Outlook: Volatility expected to rise with tariff deadline (Apr 2) and NFP (Apr 4). Re-tests of key technical levels could accelerate selling.
Headlines to Watch:
- April 2nd tariff decision
- Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr 4)
- Inflation expectations (via ISM reports and UoM)

SPX & ES: Key Ranges & Tactical Approach

bias… fade the bigger rallys strategy till we get in a better zone.

Monday (3/31): Chicago PMI
Tuesday (4/1): ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending
Wednesday (4/2): Tariff decision, ADP Employment, Factory Orders
Thursday (4/3): ISM Services, Trade Balance, Jobless Claims
Friday (4/4): Nonfarm Payrolls, Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rate

Big movers: PVH, Blackberry, Conagra, Guess, RH
Wildcard stock: Blackberry (BB) – could surprise given past AI/security headlines
Sector Trends: Discretionary and staples on watch for margin pressures and consumer slowdown