Market Overview: A Market on Edge
SPX pulled back from all-time highs last week, as consumer spending showed cracks and risk sentiment soured.
Tariff uncertainties and fiscal policy concerns remain unresolved, adding fuel to volatility.
Retail euphoria meets tax season blues—historically, March and April have been tough for high-beta, short-interest, and speculative names
SPX & ES: Ranges Tighten, NVDA the Wildcard, then SOTU to stabilize
NVDA earnings on Wednesday are the big event, with options pricing in a ±9% move. Expecting wild swings, but after that, things could stabilize, especially heading into the State of the Union (SOTU).
Also interesting chart here how much de-risking has already taken place for tech (top 4 “risk off” events in the past 5 years). Now we need to find where the buyers live.
Key Events: CPI, PCE & NVIDIA’s Impact
Tuesday (2/25): Consumer Confidence, Housing Index (watch for consumer weakness confirmation).
Wednesday (2/26): Crude inventories, Mortgage applications, NVDA earnings.
Thursday (2/27): GDP (second estimate), Durable Goods, Jobless Claims.
Friday (2/28): PCE Inflation—key for rate cut expectations.
Earnings to watch:
NVDA (Wed) – The AI trade hinges on this one.
LOW, CRM, SNOW (Wed) – Housing and enterprise tech under the microscope.
DELL, ADSK, HPQ (Thu) – PC demand and software margins.
Flows & Positioning: Hedge Funds Getting Selective
Hedge funds are rotating out of broad tech and into selective AI and deregulation plays - GS
Retail-driven names (high beta, short interest) face a potential unwind as tax season looms - GS
JPM notes a slowdown in flows into high-risk assets, including crypto, as momentum decays - JPM
Mean reversion to ytd vwap worked well this week, it was a rolling reversion like you mentioned. 200 day still a decent chunk away for most of the popular stuff. Would not be surprised if bonds are next, pretty extended from ytd vwap. Really like these weekly trading notes