Last Week in a Nutshell
The S&P 500 (SPX) wrapped up last week at 5,987, up a modest 0.4%. Not bad for a holiday-shortened week with lighter trading volumes.
What moved the markets?
Seasonal Lift: Thanksgiving week lived up to its reputation with steady upward drift.
Passive Power: ETFs and passive funds (now 55% of global assets under management) kept equity demand alive.
Winners and Losers: Financials, energy, and consumer discretionary led the way, while semiconductors and Europe struggled with AI-related concerns.
What’s On Deck This Week?
It’s a packed one, with some key themes to watch:
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs:
November’s non-farm payrolls report drops Friday (183K expected).
A good number keeps the Fed patient; a hot print might stir up rate-cut doubts.
Big Earnings to Watch:
Salesforce (CRM): Reporting Tuesday, with EPS projected at $2.45. Keep an eye on updates around its new Agentforce initiative.
Marvell Technology (MRVL): AI silicon demand will be the hot topic here. EPS expected at $0.41.
Kroger (KR): Holiday spending trends are key as they report Thursday.
Fund Flows & Seasonality:
December is known for its “Santa Claus Rally,” and the first two weeks of January also tend to be strong.
Money market funds are sitting on $7.8 trillion—could we see some of that shift into equities?
Tactical Levels to Watch (ES Futures)
Resistance: 6070-80 then 6100+
Support: ~5960–5900
The market feels range-bound for now with seasonal winds and there’s room to run if we get some strong economic data or earnings surprises. just using ES for tactical trades since its running from its 20day now… we’ll see how the week goes.
for $SPX.. its clear we’ve been in CTA work just bouncing off moving avgs.. not much more simpler for passive trend followers
Key Breadth Analysis
Strong Breadth Across Major Indices: The percentage of stocks above their 20-day EMA for the S&P 500, MidCaps, and SmallCaps is all above 80%, indicating broad-based participation in the rally.
S&P 500 Leads Breadth: The S&P 500 shows the highest percentage of stocks above their 20-day EMA (~84%), suggesting stronger momentum in large-cap stocks compared to mid and small caps.
MidCaps and SmallCaps Catching Up: Both MidCaps and SmallCaps have crossed the 80% threshold, signaling improving breadth in these segments after prior lagging performance.
Technology Momentum Moderating: The Nasdaq's breadth, while still strong at 71%, lags behind other indices, potentially indicating consolidation or rotation out of technology-driven gains.
Stocks to Keep an Eye On
Earnings Plays
CRM: Look for updates on enterprise demand and early 2026 guidance—this could set the tone for the software space.
MRVL: AI demand and cloud spending trends are critical. A better-than-expected guide could reignite semiconductor optimism.
KR: Consumer trends during the holiday season could give insights into broader discretionary spending.
Seasonal Opportunities
Financials: JPMorgan (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS) look strong as deregulation themes pick up.
Energy: Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) remain solid plays as oil demand rises into year-end.
Retail: Watch Lululemon (LULU) and Kroger (KR) for clues on how the consumer is holding up.
Options Strategies
Low realized volatility in the S&P offers a chance to use short-term straddles or gamma scalping.
High implied vols in NVDA and MRVL make these names interesting for call spreads.
From the Flow Desk
What’s Happening with Fund Flows?
ETFs continue to dominate, with $450 billion in inflows year-to-date. Passive strategies are here to stay.
Corporate buybacks hit a record this year, with over $900 billion of equity demand expected—this continues to provide a solid floor for the market.
Where’s the Action?
Midcaps and small caps (RUT) look primed for strength as broader participation picks up.
AI-driven names might see less concentration as investors look for opportunities beyond the mega-caps.
other themes..
1. Defensive and Income Plays
These names are solid performers with stable cash flows, often favored for their defensive qualities and dividend income.
Altria (MO): +10.1% over 6 months, +32.3% over 12 months. A classic dividend stock with stability in consumer staples.
CME Group (CME): +11.7% over 6 months, +16.7% over 12 months. A steady player benefiting from volatility and derivatives trading.
Digital Realty Trust (DLR): +31.7% over 6 months, +40.1% over 12 months. Capitalizing on rising demand for data centers and REIT stability.
Allstate (ALL): +11.6% over 6 months, +28.5% over 12 months. A steady performer in insurance with strong risk-adjusted returns.
Old Republic International (ORI): +10.0% over 6 months, +27.7% over 12 months. Reliable returns in insurance and financial services.
2. Growth and Innovation
These stocks represent high-growth sectors and are focused on cutting-edge industries like space exploration, fintech, and electric aviation.
Archer Aviation (ACHR): +132.9% over 3 months, +217.9% over 12 months. A speculative bet on electric aviation innovation.
Rocket Lab (RKLB): +43.6% over 3 months, +552.6% over 12 months. Riding the wave of growing demand for space exploration technologies.
SoFi (SOFI): +20.4% over 3 months, +139.6% over 12 months. A disruptor in fintech with high growth potential.
Toast (TOST): +7.2% over 3 months, +84.3% over 12 months. Benefiting from digitization in the food-service industry.
3. Infrastructure and Energy
These names focus on energy pipelines, infrastructure, and utilities, benefiting from long-term global trends in clean energy and infrastructure spending.
Energy Transfer (ET): +14.9% over 3 months, +32.9% over 12 months. Reliable cash flows from pipeline operations.
Enterprise Products Partners (EPD): +10.7% over 3 months, +26.5% over 12 months. Steady returns in natural gas and energy infrastructure.
Xcel Energy (XEL): +19.1% over 6 months, +38.2% over 12 months. A utility play with exposure to renewable energy.
YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF): +24.4% over 3 months, +79.6% over 12 months. Strong performance driven by energy demand in Latin America.
4. Consumer Discretionary and Travel
These stocks are benefiting from post-pandemic travel recovery and increasing discretionary spending.
Marriott (MAR): +25.2% over 6 months, +27.1% over 12 months. Thriving on robust travel demand.
BellRing Brands (BRBR): +8.8% over 3 months, +41.7% over 12 months. Growing with consumer focus on health and nutrition.
5. Technology and E-Commerce
Tech and e-commerce platforms driving innovation and adoption across industries.
Robinhood (HOOD): +16.2% over 3 months, +78.0% over 12 months. Continued interest from retail investors drives growth.
Zillow (Z): +16.0% over 3 months, +115.7% over 12 months. A recovering housing market supports online real estate platforms.
GoDaddy (GDDY): +8.0% over 3 months, +41.8% over 12 months. Leveraging the growing need for online presence among small businesses.
6. Financials
Focused on banking, insurance, and financial services.
SPDR Financials ETF (XLF): +2.9% over 3 months, +26.6% over 12 months. A broad play on financial sector strength.
Jefferies (JEF): +7.6% over 3 months, +75.5% over 12 months. Benefiting from strong performance in investment banking and capital markets.
Nasdaq (NDAQ): +16.9% over 6 months, +39.5% over 12 months. A leader in tech-heavy exchange operations.
7. Speculative and High-Risk Plays
Emerging industries and smaller-cap names with potential for outsized returns.
NextNav (NN): +22.3% over 3 months, +128.8% over 12 months. Niche focus in location-based technology.
Lightspeed Commerce (LSPD): +8.9% over 3 months, +22.9% over 12 months. Growth potential in small-business e-commerce.
DLocal (DLO): +15.7% over 3 months, +27.4% over 12 months. A high-growth play in emerging-market fintech.
Quick Hits
Macro Picture:
US economic outperformance remains the big story, with capital flowing into US equities over Europe.
However, a rising dollar could cap international gains and potentially create some headwinds.
Sector Rotation:
Financials and energy are benefiting from policy tailwinds and remain attractive.
Tech’s relative weakness could be an opportunity for value buyers if the selloff deepens.
Key Risks:
Friday’s jobs report will be critical—any surprise could shake up the Fed narrative.
Watch the 10-year yield; if it climbs above 4.50%, equity flows could take a hit.
Final Thoughts
This week’s setup looks pretty good:
The S&P is poised for a steady climb if earnings and jobs data don’t disappoint.
Financials and energy remain strong plays, while midcaps could see inflows as we head into the new year.
Keep an eye on volatility—things could get exciting if macro surprises come into play.
thanks for reading. have a nice week!