Since late May, 88 of the 100 levels we’ve published and graded did what the note said they’d do. Last week showed why that matters. The long we built from 7,687 closed Wednesday at +166 pts, on the exit rule we printed Sunday. Thursday’s dip buy at 7,720 sold at 7,800 for another 80. We were flat before Friday’s low. Wednesday’s note also said the low would go first, and it did. If you only read one note a month, read the levels. That’s where the money is.
The week itself: ES settled 7,703 Friday, down 163. The S&P 500 lost about 2% and the Nasdaq 100 lost 5.5%. The Dow finished up 0.6%, and the equal-weight S&P 500, where every stock counts the same, finished up 0.5%. That’s not a market breaking. That’s a handful of leaders getting repriced.
Two things did it. Inflation came in hot twice: September CPI ran 3.7% headline, and PPI jumped 1.3% in September alone, and its yearly rate hit the highest since December 2022. Then the AI trade got a credit scare. The cost of protecting CoreWeave (CRWV) debt against default spiked to about 9.5% a year and its 2032 bonds fell under 80 cents. Chips fell 8 days straight and software dropped 4.8% on Friday alone.
The second-level read: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) printed a record quarter the same week and said AI demand is still bigger than supply. So the market’s vote is on who pays for the build, and at what rate. The 10-year actually fell, from 5.33% after CPI to about 5.09%, which tells you bonds read the week as a growth scare.
That’s why Meta (META) on Wednesday is the print of the week. Analysts see revenue up about 23% and earnings down about 16%, because spending on data centers roughly doubled to about $40 billion a quarter. It’s a referendum on whether the market still rewards the spending.
The plan’s about patience. Let the market show us where the buyers are.
Free chart of the week: watch the average stock. Two companies carry a third of the S&P 500’s expected earnings growth for the quarter. When they slip, the index slips with them.
Below the line: last week graded on the map, the score, this week’s levels and the 3 paths, the playbook, the setups, and what the calendar is really voting on.
