The Fed raised rates a quarter point on Wednesday in a 12 to 0 vote. The dot plot has one more coming this year. Warsh said inflation has been too high for too long and wouldn’t call policy restrictive enough. That’s the version Sunday called “a hike with more to come,” and Sunday said it would send 7,600. It did.
The S&P closed down 0.5% at 7,551. The Dow lost 1.2% and the Nasdaq finished flat, so tech held the index while everything tied to rates took the hit. The dollar jumped and the 10-year sat right around 5%. Crude slipped 3% to about $102. Retail sales came in at +1.2% for the month against +0.7% expected, which is the kind of number a Fed that’s still hiking doesn’t want to see.
September ES closed under 7,600 on Tuesday and again on Wednesday. That’s the downgrade. From here every price is on the December contract, which trades about 68 points above September. We should have made the switch on Sunday. We’re making it now.
Below the line: Sunday’s map graded, the December levels for Thursday and Friday, and what nine Septembers say about the fourth quarter.
