LobWedge Research — S&P 500 (ES) & Market Analysis

LobWedge Research — S&P 500 (ES) & Market Analysis

The grind is the setup.

ES broke the all-time high and keeps grinding. Every dip gets bought. Buybacks are 40% of daily volume through June 12. After that, the floor disappears.

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LW
May 28, 2026
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Nine green weeks. ATH broken. MRVL and CRM both beat after hours Wednesday, giving the AI capex-to-revenue loop two more confirmations after NVDA last week.

But the buying that’s been propping up every dip isn’t organic. Corporate buybacks are the biggest bid in the market. Options positioning is dampening every move automatically. And the big money isn’t aggressively adding. They’re holding, not buying more. The market’s grinding higher on autopilot, and the autopilot has a switch-off date.

ES is sitting around 7,554. The ADR’s compressing (20-day average: 59.75 pts, today’s range: 55.75). The market’s quiet. Too quiet for all-time highs with PCE, GDP second estimate, and a loaded earnings calendar all landing Thursday.

Below the fold: the level scorecard, updated game plan with positioning baked in, themes that survived the week, and why the Lie drops back to zero.


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