Quick grade on Sunday’s map before the update. Monday reclaimed the pivot and ran 69 points. Tuesday failed at the week-high line, the one the chart labeled the trap, and gave back 71. Wednesday’s flush stopped two points from the expected-move floor and buyers took the level back by the close. Three days in, the week nets out flat inside a narrowing range.
The Lie: 0 NEUTRAL. Was +1. Sunday listed the lines that take the score back. The bond market broke one of them Wednesday. The score follows the rules, and the response was written down in advance.
One read before the paywall. Sunday we said read the two exchanges separately: a split is rotation, both rolling over together is distribution, defend. Wednesday, for the first time since late June, advance-decline momentum went negative on both exchanges at once. One session isn’t a trend, three would be. But when your own published checks start firing, you don’t argue with them. You get smaller and let the market prove the good case again.
Below the fold: the level-by-level grade, the trade that filled at the floor and what we did with it, odds on the wedge that’s forming, and the new names earning a spot in the book.
