ES mid-week update · November 4, 2026 · № 45
Sunday’s map named a trap at each pivot. Both showed up. Monday’s ISM spike pushed ES to 7,693.75, through the 7,667 save, and it was back under within the hour. That was the bull trap, and the put-spread fade paid at 7,614 the same afternoon. Tuesday night the bear trap came. Election results and AMD (AMD) hit the same close, and ES flushed 117 pts to 7,490, 48 under our 7,538 test. It was back over 7,538 within 2 hours, and the call-spread fade finished Wednesday at full value.
Then Wednesday did the rest. ES rallied 256 pts off the low, closed 7,735.25 over the save, and topped out at 7,746.25, 0.75 under our 7,747 first target.
The election moved two markets more than stocks. Crude fell 8% to about $88, its third straight drop and a one-month low, as traders priced a faster end to the Iran war. The 10-year fell 8 basis points to 4.89%. The S&P 500 rose 1.6%, equal weight rose 1.9%, and 375 of the 500 stocks finished green. Chips fell 2.8% and energy 4.7%.
Below the line: Sunday’s map and trades graded, the score, where the money went sector by sector, the new levels, the odds from weeks like this one, and the plan into payrolls.
