The thesis
Copper may be becoming a bottleneck in the AI buildout. Some of the largest data center campuses require up to 50,000 tons of copper. Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta are building dozens of them. J.P. Morgan estimates data center copper demand alone could reach 475,000 metric tons this year, up 110,000 tons from last year.
But supply can’t respond on the same timeline. The average time from discovery to first production is 17.9 years (S&P Global). The mining sector went through a capex depression. Nobody built new projects for years. Even if copper doubled tomorrow, the first new greenfield ton wouldn’t arrive until the 2030s.
The setup is attractive, but timing and position size matter. This is already a popular trade, and crowded trades punish bad entries. Copper at $6.5/lb, near all-time highs, consolidating instead of crashing. If anything, its an interesting tell for next moves.
