Sunday asked for a dip first. It didn’t come. ES dipped to 7,760.25 Monday morning, 15 under the pivot, and that was the low of the week. Monday hit the first scale at 7,837. Tuesday ran to 7,897.50, 9 shy of the contract high, and the S&P 500 printed its first record close since mid-August. ES is up 74 from Friday.
Wednesday was the rate leg. The 10-year traded 5.35% before 9 a.m. Eastern, the highest since 2002, and the 30-year made a 24-year high. ES fell 82 from Tuesday’s high to 7,815.75, then the 10-year auction and the Fed minutes took the edge off. The minutes said most officials expect one more hike this year and want to take each meeting as it comes. October hike odds sit near 20%. ES closed 7,850.25.
Underneath, the index held and the rest didn’t. The Russell lost 1.3% Wednesday and the Dow 0.7%, with Caterpillar down almost 6% on a downgrade. The S&P lost 0.2% and Micron (MU) gained 4%. Same 2 markets as Sunday.
Below the line: Sunday’s map graded, the setups re-marked, the new levels, the odds from weeks like this one, and the plan into Friday.
