Most traders size a trade once and then hope. This week’s map showed a better way: buy a level, sell the next level up, and let each trip pay for the next add.
The number to watch is theo avg: what you paid, minus what you’ve banked, divided by the lots you still hold. Once theo avg is under your stop, the trade can’t lose.
The setup ($50k, MES, max loss $1,000)
Buy 3 MES at 7,718. Risk to the 7,659 trend line is $885.
Sell 2 at 7,767. Keep 1 as a runner.
Rebuy 2 every time 7,718 trades again.
Add at 7,687 only with banked money.
Wrong is a close under 7,687, or 7,659 intraday.
What happened
The first trip on Tuesday morning put theo avg under the line. By Thursday’s flush to 7,672, the position was paid for. The week finished +$2,210 on $885 of risk, with $1,205 locked even if the trend line broke.
The asymmetry is in the runners
The trading lots risk 59 points to make 49. Their job is to fund the runner. Once you’re green, a runner costs no fresh risk and is worth +$845 per MES if 7,887 prints. Use banked money to add runners, then scale them out at 7,847, 7,875 and 7,887.
Three checks at every level
Buy level or sell level?
Can I afford the add with banked money?
Where’s my stop now?
Try it
Play this week’s tape level by level. You make the call, and the trainer shows your lots, theo avg, stop and worst case after every decision. Pick ES, MES or Nano, set your account size and stop, or switch to “buy till wrong” and see how the math changes.
👉 [Trade the week on the levels]
Try to get to green.
Educational. Fills at the level, no slippage or commissions. Not a recommendation to trade.