ES weekly plan · October 31, 2026 · № 45
A day early this week. so you're getting the plan Saturday. Sunday night's open is the first test of the map. Also made some updates below to make visuals more mobile friendly.. how else are we supposed to use it from the golf course!
The levels worked again last week, including on the way down. Sunday's pivot at 7,695 held for 4 sessions. Wednesday's note said a close under it takes the long bias off and puts 7,540 in play if volatility stays bid. Friday did exactly that: ES lost 7,695 after Amazon (AMZN) reported and made its low at 7,558.25, 18 pts above our extreme, then bounced 59 pts. We stayed flat because the plan only bought the pivot on a hold.
ES settled 7,617.50, down 51.50, its third straight losing week. The S&P 500 fell 1.8% Friday, its worst day since June, and the Nasdaq 100 fell 3.5% into correction. Intel (INTC) lost 28.6%, its worst day since the 1970s, after warning on cash flow. The chip index dropped 7.2%.
The typical S&P 500 stock lost only 0.3% Friday, and 6 of 11 sectors rose. Regeneron (REGN) jumped 13.3% on a clean beat and AbbVie (ABBV) closed at a record. Money came out of a handful of crowded names and stayed in stocks. The index is weighted toward the biggest AI spenders, and those are the stocks getting sold.
Apple (AAPL) reports Monday night, the midterms and AMD (AMD) land Tuesday night, and October payrolls come Friday. We're positioned small until ES closes back over 7,667.
Free chart of the week: the other 493 are out-earning the Magnificent 7. On Sep 30 the 7 biggest companies were expected to grow third-quarter earnings 33.6%. With 5 of them reported, they're tracking 22.6%. The rest of the S&P 500 went the other way, from 27.8% to 32.6%. Growth is broadening, but the index is weighted toward the part that slowed.
Below the line: last week graded, the score, this week's map and odds, the volatility and positioning read, two fade trades into Wednesday, the setups lined up with sector rotation, and how to read a down day.
