ES Mid-Week: Three Tests. Three Rejections.

Sunday's plan called two levels. Both played to the point. The 6,512 zone reversed 265 points. The hurdle rejected ES three times. The Lie score, the peace plan, and what comes next below.

ES Mid-Week Update | Mar 25, 2026

---

ES at 6,643. Up 84 from Friday’s close.

Sunday night, ES flushed 30 points below our 6,512 structural support into the JPM collar zone and reversed hard. Since then, the hurdle has rejected every rally attempt. ES hit 6,680 on Monday, 6,685 on Tuesday, and 6,685 again on Wednesday. Same ceiling, three days in a row.

This week we’re introducing The Lie (beta). In golf, your lie is where the ball actually sits, not where you wanted it to land. Same with markets. Five inputs, one number from -5 (get defensive) to +5 (press it). It shapes how you approach every level on the map.

This week’s Lie: -1. Improved from -2 on Sunday. The bounce is real but the conviction bottom hasn’t formed.

Scorecard, six levels with conviction tags, the Iran peace plan, positioning shifts, and what flips The Lie below.