LobWedge Research — S&P 500 (ES) & Market Analysis

LobWedge Research — S&P 500 (ES) & Market Analysis

ES Mid-Week: The Turn That Wasn't.

ES bounced 220 points on ceasefire hope. Then Trump promised 2-3 more weeks of escalation and oil jumped back above $104. The Lie moved from -4 to -1. Updated levels below.

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LW
Apr 02, 2026
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ES Mid-Week Update | Apr 1, 2026


ES at 6,547 in overnight futures, down 70 from Wednesday’s close of 6,618. Oil at $104.11, higher than where we started the week at $100.

Sunday’s plan said: “defensive and patient, watching for the turn.” The market tried to turn. For 48 hours it looked like it might work. Then reality reasserted itself in 19 minutes of primetime television.

The Lie: -1 (was -4). The direction changed. The catalyst didn’t confirm.

Updated levels, what the breadth snap-back means, and how to handle the NFP/deadline weekend below.

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