LobWedge Research — S&P 500 (ES) & Market Analysis

LobWedge Research — S&P 500 (ES) & Market Analysis

ES Mid-Week: Sunday's Key Levels Held. Here's What Changed.

The levels that mattered this week played out. Here's the updated playbook for Thursday and Friday.

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LW
Feb 19, 2026
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Sunday’s plan flagged three levels. Here’s what happened.

6,809 (line in the sand). Tuesday, ES broke through it and hit 6,791. Buyers stepped in and reversed the entire move. If you were watching that level for a reaction, the bounce from 6,809 back to Tuesday’s close at 6,860 was 51 points.

6,875 (the pivot). Wednesday, ES reclaimed it on the way up and kept going. The move from the 6,875 reclaim to Wednesday’s high of 6,926 was 51 points.

6,936 (the resistance test). Wednesday’s high was 6,926. Came within 10 points but hasn’t been tested yet. Still the level to watch.

Two of the three levels gave 50+ point reactions in the direction we mapped out on Sunday night. You didn’t need to predict the selloff or the bounce. You just needed to know where to pay attention.

That’s the difference between reacting and preparing.

But the week isn’t over. Walmart earnings Thursday morning. GDP Friday at 8:30am. SCOTUS back on the bench. And Iran has two carriers in the Gulf. That’s weekend gap risk.

The mid-week update is live with a simplified three-level framework for Thursday and Friday.

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