Sunday said the first test of our pivot would decide the week. It did. Monday traded both sides of it and closed just under. Tuesday closed back over, and Wednesday dipped to within a point of it and rallied 61 pts. ES settled 7,800.50, up 97 from Friday, on its third straight higher close. That’s the path we drew Sunday, and the same habit behind the 88 of 100 graded levels we cited: the line we draw is the line that decides. In a range week, our daily levels have done the heavy lifting, Wednesday included.
The bounce was broad. Nasdaq futures are up 2.2% from Friday, the Russell 2% and the Dow 1.7%. ES, at 1.3%, is the laggard.
Under the index, it got wild. Super Micro (SMCI) jumped 9.5% after raising its revenue guide by about $4 billion, and SpaceX (SPCX) rose 7.8% on its first profitable quarter. Netflix (NFLX) fell 5.3% on a light outlook and AT&T (T) fell 6.4% on a subscriber miss. Demand got paid. Guidance cuts got sold.
Then Meta reported: record revenue, up 26%, a higher floor on its AI spending, a 2-for-1 split and a new class of non-voting shares to fund the build. The stock rose 2% to 4% after hours. Lam Research (LRCX), which sells the tools that make the chips, beat and raised and still fell 6.5%. ES gave back 33 pts after hours. The market paid the AI buyer and sold the AI supplier on the same night, and Thursday decides which one it listens to.
Below the line: Sunday’s map graded, the score, the levels and plan for Thursday and Friday, the setups re-marked, what this setup has meant into the midterms, and how to trade the middle of a range.
