ES lost 165 pts this week, and the big turns came at our published levels.
Sunday’s score was +1, long at half size. Monday’s high stopped a point under our sellers’ line. Hot CPI on Wednesday ran through the dip buys, and our close rule took us out:
Starter from 7,687: +83
Buyback from 7,837: −67
Half banked at 7,837 the week before: +150
Campaign: +166, flat before the drop
Wednesday night the score dropped to −1. The new map called for starters only, with a dip buy at 7,720 if it held. Thursday it held to within 3 pts.
Dip buy 7,720 → the 7,800 pivot: +80
ES tagged the pivot and closed under it, so the long bias never re-armed. With the score at −1, you could also have faded the failed reclaim of 7,800 on Friday’s open back to 7,720, another 80 pts. There’s more than one way to trade a level. Friday closed under 7,720, risk off as written.
Value kept moving lower all week, and the bounce never got the tape behind it.
New map Sunday. lobwedge.substack.com